by Mickey Bell

*Stats and Roster % as of the morning of April 24

GRADUATED

• Batters
  • Patrick Wisdom, 1B/3B/OF, CHC (34% to 54%)
  • Jeremy Pena, SS, HOU (41% to 53%)
  • Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, TEX (41% to 53%)
  • Randal Grichuk, OF, COL (50% to 51%)
• Starters
  • Merrill Kelly, SP, ARI (46% to 57%)
  • Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY (50% to 52%)

50% OR UNDER

Alec Bohm, 3B, PHI (41%: new)

Check out Bohm’s PitcherList page (as an aside, these new PitcherList player pages are essential reading). Bohm’s Hard Contact % (HC%) and expected average (xBA) are both in the top 15 in the MLB. Bohm’s strikeouts are way down, and he should be able to keep the K rate below 20%.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Mark Canha, OF, NYM (49%: new)
  • Robbie Grossman, OF, DET (49% to 47%): 117th overall player in 2021
  • Kolten Wong, 2B, MIL (49 to 43%)
• Starters
  • Matt Brash, SP, SEA (45% to 47%)
  • Josiah Gray, SP, WAS (22% to 47%)
  • Bailey Ober, SP, MIN (39% to 45%)
  • Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD (45%: new)
• Relievers
  • Josh Staumont, RP, KC (42%: new)
  • Joe Barlow, RP, TEX (40%: new): I actually missed this news because he hasn’t gotten a save yet, but the Rangers managed confirmed Barlow will take over the closer role.

40% OR UNDER

Jorge Lopez, SP/RP, BAL (6% to 38%)

Lopez picked up 3 SV this week as he solidified his role as the Orioles closer. He has raised his fastball from 95 to 98 MPH this year and his K rate has jumped 15%. His 10.8% BB rate is too high, but he’s still managed a 1.11 WHIP to this point.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Joc Pederson, OF, SF (38%: new)
  • JP Crawford, SS, SEA (38%: new)
  • Josh Lowe, OF, TBR (49% to 35%): He has steals upside but his current 40.4% K rate makes him tough to stomach.
  • Brandon Marsh, OF, LAA (34%: new)
  • Alejandro Kirk, C, TOR (37% to 32%)
• Starters
  • Cristian Javier, SP/RP, HOU (40%: new): Houston are moving to a six-man rotation and Javier, who has 12 K over 8.1 scoreless IP, will start at the Rangers on Wednesday.
  • Jameson Taillon, SP, NYY (37%: new)
• Relievers
  • Hector Neris, RP, HOU (40%: new)

30% OR UNDER

Lucas Sims, RP, CIN (25% to 23%)

Sims returned this weekend, pitched in back to back days, and got the save today (Sunday). He had 7 SV and a scorching 39.0% K rate last year. Sims’s rostership is about to skyrocket.  

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM (30%: new): Nimmo is obviously a must-roster in points leagues and he should be strongly considered in OBP leagues, but he is not a perfect 5×5 player. While his average and runs will be above average, he probably will not get you many home runs while chipping in a steal here and there.
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B, TBR (16% to 29%)
  • Tommy Pham, OF, CIN (32% to 29%): The overall line does not look great, but Pham finally started hitting this week. Batting third every day for the Reds, he could contribute in all four counting stats albeit with a bad average.
  • Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK (27%: new): Laureano started a AAA rehab assignment and will be eligible to return from his PED suspension on May 8.
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF, MIL (21%: no change)
• Starters
  • Eric Lauer, SP, MIL (10% to 29%): 3.19 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 8.9 K/9 last year, and he has started well this year.
  • Nick Lodolo, SP, CIN (26%: new)
• Relievers
  • Dany Jimenez, RP, OAK (5% to 30%)
  • Diego Castillo, RP, SEA (27% to 24%)

20% OR UNDER

Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS/OF, BAL (12% to 19%)

Mateo leads the MLB with 7 SB. He is not hitting a lot of XBH, but maybe that helps him steal second base more often? Mateo isn’t a great hitter and he won’t contribute many home runs, but he’s contributing elite stats in the second sparsest category.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Harrison Bader, OF, STL (22% to 20%)
  • Seth Beer, Util, ARI (9% to 17%)
  • Nicky Lopez, SS, KCR (17%: no change)
  • Diego Castillo, 2B/3B, PIT (20% to 15%)
  • Taylor Ward, OF, LAA (1% to 13%)
• Starters
  • Grayson Rodriguez, SP, BAL (17% to 18%): The MLB’s number one pitching prospect didn’t get called up yet, but it shouldn’t be long now. In 14.1 IP in AAA, he has a 42.8% K-BB rate and a 0.49 WHIP. Even if the Orioles keep Rodriguez down a little longer to manipulate his service time, that deadline will pass soon. John Means is done for the season, opening up another spot.
• Relievers
  • Emilio Pagan, RP, MIN (18%: new)
  • Michael King, RP, NYY (16%: new)
  • Spencer Strider, RP, ATL (15% to 12%)
  • Andres Munoz, RP, SEA (11%: new)

10% OR UNDER

Vidal Brujan, 2B/OF, TBR (7%: new)

More steals! Sure, he could struggle again like he did last year. But Brujan’s steals upside makes him worth taking a chance on; he had 44 steals in 103 games at AAA last year. This year at AAA, a 0.294 BA and a 22.7% BB rate has propelled him to a 0.455 OBP. The fact that his K rates are generally in the low teens makes me think his 31% K rate in just 10 games last year was just a small sample size for a player who is hopefully more ready to face majors pitching.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Daniel Vogelback, 1B, PIT (9%: new)
  • Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, CHC (8%: new)
  • Rowdy Tellez, 1B, MIL (5% to 8%)
  • Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, CLE (6%: new)
  • Santiago Espinal, 2B/3B, TOR (6%: new)
• Starters
  • Nick Martinez, SP, SDP (10% to 5%)
• Relievers
  • Hansel Robles, RP, BOS (5% to 8%)
  • Chris Stratton, RP, PIT (6%: new)
  • Matt Bush, RP, TEX (1%: new)