by Mickey Bell

*Stats and Roster % as of the morning of August 16

GRADUATED

• Batters
  • Vaughn Grissom, 2B/SS, ATL (35% to 60%)
  • Christian Walker, 1B, ARI (49% to 56%)
  • Jean Segura, 2B, PHI (48% to 51%)
• Starters
  • George Kirby, SP, SEA (41% to 54%)

Please check out last week’s article here if you missed it.

50% OR UNDER

Joc Pederson, OF, SFG (45%: new)

Pederson has not hit a home run since June, and while that is concerning, the homers will come. Check out his StatCast chart below; his Avg Exit Velo, Max Exit Velo, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel % all rank in the top 11% of the league. Even his xBA is top 14%. After an abysmal July (0.421 OPS), he’s turned it around with a 1.030 OPS in August despite no homers. 

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, CHC (47% to 49%): This year, along with a 0.304 BA, Hoerner has added 7 HR and 13 SB. While his Barrel rate is still a miniscule 2.5%, he has raised his launch angle and is pulling the ball more, leading to some homers over the shallow part of left field. While Hoerner will continue to chip in homers and steals (top 9% Sprint Speed), his biggest value boost will continue to be in the batting average category. Hoerner doesn’t strike out (top 3%) and his xBA (Expected Batting Average) ranks among the top 9% in the league. 
  • Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, CLE (49% to 43%)
• Starters
  • Jose Quintana, SP/RP, STL (38% to 46%)
  • Alex Cobb, SP, SFG (36% to 41%)
• Relievers
  • Tanner Scott, RP, MIA (48% to 47%)
  • Joe Barlow, RP, TEX (43%: returning): Returning from the IL today, keep an eye on Barlow who lost the closer job before hitting the IL. It’s still probably Jonathan Hernandez’s job right now.
  • Jason Adam, RP, TBR (38% to 42%): 2 SV this week.

40% OR UNDER

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, KCR (13% to 37%)

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Kolten Wong, 2B, MIL (46% to 40%)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF, MIL (43% to 40%)
  • Franmil Reyes, OF, CHC (34% to 39%)
  • Harrison Bader, OF, NYY (39%: no change): Still on the IL
  • Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B, STL (40% to 36%)
  • Jose Iglesias, 2B/SS, COL (25% to 32%)
  • Luis Rengifo, 2B/3B/SS/OF, LAA (31%: new)
• Starters
  • Ross Stripling, SP/RP, TOR (35%: returning): Returned from the IL and pitched 6.1 scoreless innings today.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, DET (34%: new): Returning from the IL on Sunday.
  • Mike Soroka, SP, ATL (33%: new): Working his way back from an Achilles injury.
• Relievers
  • Jhoan Duran, SP/RP, MIN (44% to 40%): Jorge Lopez is the closer.
  • Rowan Wick, RP, CHC (15% to 39%)
  • Dany Jimenez, RP, OAK (37% to 34%)

30% OR UNDER

Brett Baty, 3B, NYM (28%: new)

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Ramon Urias, 2B/3B/SS, BAL (33% to 27%)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SFG (26%: no change)
  • Leody Taveras, OF, TEX (39% to 23%)
  • Harold Ramirez, 1B/OF, TBR (22%: returning)
• Starters
  • Braxton Garrett, SP, MIA (44% to 29%): Since the beginning of July, the lefty has a 0.97 WHIP with a 20.5% K-BB rate, 21st in the MLB during that span. Garrett’s slider has a 22.6% SwStr% and a 45.8% O-Swing. Overall, his Chase Rate is in the top 7% in the league according to StatCast. Braxton’s new sinker gets lots of ground balls (62%) and make his vertical and horizontal plane of attack more unpredictable. 
  • Justin Steele, SP/RP, CHC (29%: returning): 1.07 ERA, 32 K in 25.1 over past 30 days.
  • Aaron Civale, SP, CLE (26%: new)
  • Aaron Ashby, SP/RP, MIL (26%: returning)
  • Tyler Glasnow, SP, TBR (18% to 23%): Add him if you have a free IL spot. He’s ramping up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He might not end up being fantasy-relevant, but if things go well, you could be getting an ace pitcher for September and beyond.
• Relievers
  • John Schreiber, RP, BOS (29%: no change): With Tanner Houck went to the IL, the closer job for the Red Sox seems likely to fall to Schreiber or Garrett Whitlock, although Matt Barnes did grab a save yesterday. Schreiber has had an excellent year (0.86 WHIP) and the results are backed up by Eno Sarris’s stuff model as Sarris has been touting him all year (https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1533624575245725696). All four of Schreiber’s pitchers have a wRC+ of 71 or below. 
  • Ian Kennedy, RP, ARZ (20% to 29%)
  • Alexis Diaz, RP, CIN (20% to 25%)
  • Kyle Finnegan, RP, WAS (34% to 26%)

20% OR UNDER

Jonathan Hernandez, RP, TEX (14% to 17%)

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Eddie Rosario, OF, ATL (20% to 19%)
  • Juan Yepez, 1B/3B/OF, STL (17%: returning)
  • Elehuris Montero, 1B/3B, COL (18% to 13%)
• Starters
  • Roansy Contreras, SP, PIT (19%: returning)
  • James Kaprielian, SP, OAK (22% to 14%)
  • Jakob Junis, SP/RP, SFG (18% to 13%)
  • Kutter Crawford, SP/RP, BOS (13%: returning)
• Relievers
  • AJ Puk, RP, OAK (26% to 20%)
  • Andres Munoz, RP, SEA (18% to 19%) 
  • Colin Poche, RP, TBR (17% to 16%)
  • Crowe, RP, PIT (19% to 14%)

10% OR UNDER

Kerry Carpenter, UTIL, DET (2%: new)

Across AA and AA, the lefty batter had a 1.025 OPS, 30 HR, and 3 SB. He came up last week and has hit 2 HR already. If he continues to hit, Victor Reyes (87 wRC+) and Akil Baddoo (38) shouldn’t hold him back from getting consistent starts in the outfield.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Batters
  • Jarren Duran, OF, BOS (11% to 9%)
  • Nolan Jones, 3B/OF, CLE (10% to 6%): Check out this tweet to see how I feel about Jones: https://twitter.com/udownwithobp/status/1557814825572392960.
  • Sam Haggerty, OF, SEA (5%: new)
  • Jake Fraley, OF, CIN (5%: new)
  • Darick Hall, UTIL, PHI (6% to 4%)
  • Ezequiel Duran, 2B/3B/SS, TEX (4% to 3%)
• Starters
  • Mitch White, SP/RP, TOR (7% to 5%)
• Relievers
  • Ryan Tepera, RP, LAA (9% to 10%)
  • Jose Quijada, RP, LAA (5%: returning)