To find values in Yahoo! drafts this year, I used Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections from Fangraphs, and calculated z-scores based on the standard five roto stats: HR, R, RBI, SB, and AVG. Depending on how many players you pick to calculate the mean and standard deviations, the z-scores will vary slightly, but you can see who is over- and undervalued regardless. Here are six of my favorite values based on where they are being drafted on Yahoo.
|Name||Z Rank||Yahoo ADP||Difference|
Brian Anderson 2020 ATC Projection:
Anderson’s projections are not great in any one category but offers great value for a player going around the 21st round in 12 team leagues. Anderson hits the ball hard (86th percentile hard hit rate in 2019), and he has eligibility at 3B and OF, giving your team a little added flexibility. The Marlins are also moving in their fences in center and right field. Even though this change will probably help lefty hitters more, Anderson is an all-fields hitter who hit 7 home runs to center or right. He will probably bat 2nd in the Marlins slightly revamped lineup with decent hitters like Jonathan Villar and Corey Dickerson surrounding him.
Paul DeJong 2020 ATC Projection:
Shortstop is certainly a deep position in fantasy baseball these days, but you do not necessarily have to spend a high pick to fill your shortstop or middle infielder positions. DeJong is an excellent fielder so he is guaranteed playing time when healthy. The Cardinals’ lineup is pretty meh but DeJong should be right in the heart of it, perhaps as the cleanup hitter. He added 9 steals last
year so he doesn’t hurt you in any category except for AVG. Around the 16th round, he is a steal.
Khris Davis 2020 ATC Projection:
Khris Davis, who is only eligible at UT (utility) on Yahoo, hurt his hip crashing into the wall playing left field in interleague play last May. He tried to play through it but it eventually sent him to the injured list. After 3 straight 40+ home run seasons, he got into a rut and never got out last year. On top of the potential lingering issue, he was also unlucky. According to baseballsavant.com, his xSLG was 0.442 compared to his actual 0.387 SLG. He is a great value around the 16th round considering his track record before last year. Rosterresource.com is guessing he will bat 6th in the A’s lineup, but if we see the Khris Davis of old, he will quickly move up to 4th or 5th.
Jorge Polanco 2020 ATC Projection:
Another example of the depth of the shortstop position, Polanco won’t hurt you anywhere, and will help you in runs and average. Not too shabby for a player going around the 13th round. Polanco scored 107 runs last year and, if
he continues to bat 2nd in the Twins’ scary lineup, ATC’s projection of 92 runs will actually look very conservative.
Marcell Ozuna 2020 ATC Projection:
While Khris Davis was the 9th unluckiest player according to Statcast, no one was more unlucky than Marcell Ozuna last year. His expected batting average was 0.288, 47 points above his actual 0.241 average. His expected slugging (0.548) was 76 ticks higher than his actual 0.472 SLG. In his career, Ozuna has always played his home games in pitchers’ parks in Miami and St. Louis, and unfortunately Atlanta isn’t much of an upgrade. But Ozuna should benefit from batting cleanup behind Acuna, Albies, and Freeman.
Michael Conforto 2020 ATC Projection:
Conforto’s projections are in lockstep with his results last year, which were 33/90/92/7/0.257. Conforto’s 2019 expected stats were also right in line with his actual output. Conforto, who will be 27 years old during the 2020 season, was the 82nd player according to Yahoo! last season. If he is healthy, he will return 5th to 6th round value yet he is going in the 9th round.