REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 1: POSITION SCARCITY CHARTS
Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better than replacement value each player is. For each infield position (1B, 2B, 3B, SS), I gave a ZAR12 and a ZAR18 score. ZAR18 more closely represents leagues with 1 of each position plus one corner infield and one middle infield spot. For outfield, I have ZAR36 and ZAR 48 scores for 12 team leagues with 3 and 4 outfielders, respectively. I did not analyze DH only, utility spot guys because this was mostly to focus on which specific positions are the weakest. Please check out my accompanying article which analyzes the results of these charts (https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-22-replacement-value-pt-2-position-scarcity-analysis/).
C:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR12 | ADP |
| J.T. Realmuto | Phillies | 0.54 | 6.12 | 49.4 |
| Gary Sanchez | Yankees | -1.76 | 3.82 | 80.8 |
| Yasmani Grandal | White Sox | -2.53 | 3.05 | 99.5 |
| Willson Contreras | Cubs | -3.03 | 2.55 | 119.8 |
| Mitch Garver | Twins | -3.61 | 1.97 | 116.5 |
| Wilson Ramos | Mets | -3.82 | 1.76 | 176.0 |
| Salvador Perez | Royals | -3.99 | 1.59 | 160.9 |
| Christian Vazquez | Red Sox | -4.82 | 0.76 | 200.7 |
| Will Smith | Dodgers | -4.84 | 0.74 | 153.4 |
| Carson Kelly | Diamondbacks | -5.26 | 0.32 | 199.7 |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | -5.34 | 0.24 | 234.2 |
| Omar Narvaez | Brewers | -5.58 | 0.00 | 190.4 |
1B:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR12 | ZAR18 | ADP |
| Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | 8.52 | 7.06 | 9.77 | 4.4 |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | 6.11 | 4.65 | 7.36 | 18.6 |
| Peter Alonso | Mets | 3.89 | 2.43 | 5.14 | 33.2 |
| Anthony Rizzo | Cubs | 3.44 | 1.98 | 4.69 | 72.6 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Cardinals | 2.89 | 1.43 | 4.14 | 71.0 |
| Josh Bell | Pirates | 2.73 | 1.27 | 3.98 | 96.1 |
| Jose Abreu | White Sox | 2.58 | 1.12 | 3.83 | 77.7 |
| Matt Olson | Athletics | 2.27 | 0.81 | 3.52 | 56.6 |
| DJ LeMahieu | Yankees | 2.02 | 0.56 | 3.27 | 70.0 |
| Rhys Hoskins | Phillies | 1.53 | 0.07 | 2.78 | 116.6 |
| Trey Mancini | Orioles | 1.47 | 0.01 | 2.72 | 109.5 |
| Carlos Santana | Indians | 1.46 | 0 | 2.71 | 148.8 |
| Max Muncy | Dodgers | 1.32 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 75.8 |
| Yuli Gurriel | Astros | 1.18 | -0.28 | 2.43 | 150.7 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | White Sox | 0.18 | -1.28 | 1.43 | 173.0 |
| Danny Santana | Rangers | -0.71 | -2.17 | 0.54 | 139.3 |
| Eric Hosmer | Padres | -0.92 | -2.38 | 0.33 | 239.7 |
| Joey Votto | Reds | -1.25 | -2.71 | 0 | 285.8 |
2B:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR12 | ZAR18 | ADP |
| Jose Altuve | Astros | 4.02 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 38.1 |
| Ozzie Albies | Braves | 3.73 | 3.01 | 5.41 | 35.0 |
| Gleyber Torres | Yankees | 3.34 | 2.62 | 5.02 | 31.9 |
| Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | 2.94 | 2.22 | 4.62 | 55.1 |
| Keston Hiura | Brewers | 2.65 | 1.93 | 4.33 | 44.8 |
| DJ LeMahieu | Yankees | 2.02 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 70.0 |
| Mike Moustakas | Reds | 1.64 | 0.92 | 3.32 | 99.0 |
| Jeff McNeil | Mets | 1.62 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 93.8 |
| Whit Merrifield | Royals | 1.59 | 0.87 | 3.27 | 57.5 |
| Max Muncy | Dodgers | 1.32 | 0.6 | 3 | 75.8 |
| Eduardo Escobar | Diamondbacks | 0.97 | 0.25 | 2.65 | 121.2 |
| Jonathan Villar | Marlins | 0.72 | 0 | 2.4 | 37.8 |
| Tommy Edman | Cardinals | -0.53 | -1.25 | 1.15 | 141.3 |
| Cavan Biggio | Blue Jays | -1.03 | -1.75 | 0.65 | 130.6 |
| Starlin Castro | Nationals | -1.16 | -1.88 | 0.52 | 281.8 |
| Rougned Odor | Rangers | -1.45 | -2.17 | 0.23 | 235.3 |
| Brandon Lowe | Rays | -1.61 | -2.33 | 0.07 | 205.3 |
| Ryan McMahon | Rockies | -1.68 | -2.4 | 0 | 189.3 |
3B:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR12 | ZAR18 | ADP |
| Nolan Arenado | Rockies | 6.58 | 4.89 | 6.62 | 15.1 |
| Rafael Devers | Red Sox | 6.38 | 4.69 | 6.42 | 23.1 |
| Alex Bregman | Astros | 6.07 | 4.38 | 6.11 | 15.8 |
| Jose Ramirez | Indians | 6.04 | 4.35 | 6.08 | 16.9 |
| Anthony Rendon | Angels | 4.62 | 2.93 | 4.66 | 22.4 |
| Manny Machado | Padres | 3.1 | 1.41 | 3.14 | 62.9 |
| Kris Bryant | Cubs | 2.79 | 1.1 | 2.83 | 58.7 |
| Eugenio Suarez | Reds | 2.1 | 0.41 | 2.14 | 87.0 |
| Matt Chapman | Athletics | 2.08 | 0.39 | 2.12 | 89.3 |
| DJ LeMahieu | Yankees | 2.02 | 0.33 | 2.06 | 70.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | 1.88 | 0.19 | 1.92 | 55.6 |
| Yoan Moncada | White Sox | 1.69 | 0 | 1.73 | 66.3 |
| Mike Moustakas | Reds | 1.64 | -0.05 | 1.68 | 99.0 |
| Jeff McNeil | Mets | 1.62 | -0.07 | 1.66 | 93.8 |
| Max Muncy | Dodgers | 1.32 | -0.37 | 1.36 | 75.8 |
| Yuli Gurriel | Astros | 1.18 | -0.51 | 1.22 | 150.7 |
| Eduardo Escobar | Diamondbacks | 0.97 | -0.72 | 1.01 | 121.2 |
| Miguel Sano | Twins | -0.04 | -1.73 | 0 | 117.9 |
SS:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR12 | ZAR18 | ADP |
| Francisco Lindor | Indians | 6.67 | 4.61 | 6.54 | 8.2 |
| Alex Bregman | Astros | 6.07 | 4.01 | 5.94 | 15.8 |
| Trevor Story | Rockies | 6.04 | 3.98 | 5.91 | 10.2 |
| Trea Turner | Nationals | 5.59 | 3.53 | 5.46 | 9.3 |
| Javier Baez | Cubs | 4.18 | 2.12 | 4.05 | 39.5 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 4.13 | 2.07 | 4 | 15.6 |
| Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 4.06 | 2 | 3.93 | 43.5 |
| Gleyber Torres | Yankees | 3.34 | 1.28 | 3.21 | 31.9 |
| Manny Machado | Padres | 3.1 | 1.04 | 2.97 | 62.9 |
| Tim Anderson | White Sox | 2.15 | 0.09 | 2.02 | 98.7 |
| Marcus Semien | Athletics | 2.09 | 0.03 | 1.96 | 96 |
| Bo Bichette | Blue Jays | 2.06 | 0 | 1.93 | 66.1 |
| Adalberto Mondesi | Royals | 2.03 | -0.03 | 1.9 | 33.6 |
| Carlos Correa | Astros | 1.7 | -0.36 | 1.57 | 107.6 |
| Jorge Polanco | Twins | 1.35 | -0.71 | 1.22 | 166.8 |
| Jonathan Villar | Marlins | 0.72 | -1.34 | 0.59 | 37.8 |
| Paul DeJong | Cardinals | 0.67 | -1.39 | 0.54 | 201.7 |
| Elvis Andrus | Rangers | 0.13 | -1.93 | 0 | 138.6 |
OF:
| Name | Team | Z-score | ZAR36 | ZAR48 | ADP |
| Christian Yelich | Brewers | 9.26 | 8.62 | 10.95 | 2.5 |
| Mike Trout | Angels | 9.22 | 8.58 | 10.91 | 2.3 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 8.59 | 7.95 | 10.28 | 1.3 |
| Cody Bellinger | Dodgers | 8.52 | 7.88 | 10.21 | 4.4 |
| Mookie Betts | Dodgers | 7.11 | 6.47 | 8.8 | 6.0 |
| Juan Soto | Nationals | 7.05 | 6.41 | 8.74 | 11.0 |
| J.D. Martinez | Red Sox | 6.48 | 5.84 | 8.17 | 24.0 |
| Bryce Harper | Phillies | 5 | 4.36 | 6.69 | 23.0 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | 4.63 | 3.99 | 6.32 | 31.1 |
| George Springer | Astros | 4.55 | 3.91 | 6.24 | 49.9 |
| Starling Marte | Diamondbacks | 4.24 | 3.6 | 5.93 | 27.2 |
| Charlie Blackmon | Rockies | 3.76 | 3.12 | 5.45 | 46.0 |
| Austin Meadows | Rays | 3.47 | 2.83 | 5.16 | 36.0 |
| Eloy Jimenez | White Sox | 3.05 | 2.41 | 4.74 | 58.4 |
| Eddie Rosario | Twins | 3.01 | 2.37 | 4.7 | 96.7 |
| Ketel Marte | Diamondbacks | 2.94 | 2.3 | 4.63 | 55.1 |
| Marcell Ozuna | Braves | 2.9 | 2.26 | 4.59 | 99.0 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | Yankees | 2.82 | 2.18 | 4.51 | 59.8 |
| Kris Bryant | Cubs | 2.79 | 2.15 | 4.48 | 58.7 |
| Tommy Pham | Padres | 2.53 | 1.89 | 4.22 | 71.0 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | Reds | 2.33 | 1.69 | 4.02 | 97.7 |
| Michael Conforto | Mets | 2.1 | 1.46 | 3.79 | 119.8 |
| Victor Robles | Nationals | 1.83 | 1.19 | 3.52 | 61.5 |
| Jorge Soler | Royals | 1.83 | 1.19 | 3.52 | 88.9 |
| Joey Gallo | Rangers | 1.71 | 1.07 | 3.4 | 91.6 |
| Michael Brantley | Astros | 1.65 | 1.01 | 3.34 | 131.6 |
| Jeff McNeil | Mets | 1.62 | 0.98 | 3.31 | 93.8 |
| Whit Merrifield | Royals | 1.59 | 0.95 | 3.28 | 57.5 |
| Trey Mancini | Orioles | 1.47 | 0.83 | 3.16 | 109.5 |
| Yuli Gurriel | Astros | 1.18 | 0.54 | 2.87 | 150.7 |
| Andrew Benintendi | Red Sox | 1.11 | 0.47 | 2.8 | 111.8 |
| Ramon Laureano | Athletics | 1.06 | 0.42 | 2.75 | 77.9 |
| Franmil Reyes | Indians | 1 | 0.36 | 2.69 | 144.9 |
| Max Kepler | Twins | 0.75 | 0.11 | 2.44 | 142.4 |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pirates | 0.72 | 0.08 | 2.41 | 194.6 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Cubs | 0.64 | 0 | 2.33 | 146.0 |
| Luis Robert | White Sox | 0.2 | -0.44 | 1.89 | 80.0 |
| David Dahl | Rockies | -0.13 | -0.77 | 1.56 | 149.6 |
| Adam Eaton | Nationals | -0.2 | -0.84 | 1.49 | 208.8 |
| Oscar Mercado | Indians | -0.3 | -0.94 | 1.39 | 112.0 |
| Lorenzo Cain | Brewers | -0.58 | -1.22 | 1.11 | 177.1 |
| Danny Santana | Rangers | -0.71 | -1.35 | 0.98 | 139.3 |
| Brian Anderson | Marlins | -0.95 | -1.59 | 0.74 | 234.0 |
| David Peralta | Diamondbacks | -1.15 | -1.79 | 0.54 | 252.8 |
| Justin Upton | Angels | -1.37 | -2.01 | 0.32 | 222.5 |
| Hunter Renfroe | Rays | -1.37 | -2.01 | 0.32 | 258.2 |
| Randal Grichuk | Blue Jays | -1.52 | -2.16 | 0.17 | 279.2 |
| Avisail Garcia | Brewers | -1.69 | -2.33 | 0 | 218.8 |
Analysis of these charts can be found here:
https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-22-replacement-value-pt-2-position-scarcity-analysis/
