REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 1: POSITION SCARCITY CHARTS

Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better than replacement value each player is. For each infield position (1B, 2B, 3B, SS), I gave a ZAR12 and a ZAR18 score. ZAR18 more closely represents leagues with 1 of each position plus one corner infield and one middle infield spot. For outfield, I have ZAR36 and ZAR 48 scores for 12 team leagues with 3 and 4 outfielders, respectively. I did not analyze DH only, utility spot guys because this was mostly to focus on which specific positions are the weakest. Please check out my accompanying article which analyzes the results of these charts (https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-22-replacement-value-pt-2-position-scarcity-analysis/).

C:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR12ADP
J.T. RealmutoPhillies0.546.1249.4
Gary SanchezYankees-1.763.8280.8
Yasmani GrandalWhite Sox-2.533.0599.5
Willson ContrerasCubs-3.032.55119.8
Mitch GarverTwins-3.611.97116.5
Wilson RamosMets-3.821.76176.0
Salvador PerezRoyals-3.991.59160.9
Christian VazquezRed Sox-4.820.76200.7
Will SmithDodgers-4.840.74153.4
Carson KellyDiamondbacks-5.260.32199.7
Yadier MolinaCardinals-5.340.24234.2
Omar NarvaezBrewers-5.580.00190.4

1B:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR12ZAR18ADP
Cody BellingerDodgers8.527.069.774.4
Freddie FreemanBraves6.114.657.3618.6
Peter AlonsoMets3.892.435.1433.2
Anthony RizzoCubs3.441.984.6972.6
Paul GoldschmidtCardinals2.891.434.1471.0
Josh BellPirates2.731.273.9896.1
Jose AbreuWhite Sox2.581.123.8377.7
Matt OlsonAthletics2.270.813.5256.6
DJ LeMahieuYankees2.020.563.2770.0
Rhys HoskinsPhillies1.530.072.78116.6
Trey ManciniOrioles1.470.012.72109.5
Carlos SantanaIndians1.4602.71148.8
Max MuncyDodgers1.32-0.142.5775.8
Yuli GurrielAstros1.18-0.282.43150.7
Edwin EncarnacionWhite Sox0.18-1.281.43173.0
Danny SantanaRangers-0.71-2.170.54139.3
Eric HosmerPadres-0.92-2.380.33239.7
Joey VottoReds-1.25-2.710285.8

2B:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR12ZAR18ADP
Jose AltuveAstros4.023.35.738.1
Ozzie AlbiesBraves3.733.015.4135.0
Gleyber TorresYankees3.342.625.0231.9
Ketel MarteDiamondbacks2.942.224.6255.1
Keston HiuraBrewers2.651.934.3344.8
DJ LeMahieuYankees2.021.33.770.0
Mike MoustakasReds1.640.923.3299.0
Jeff McNeilMets1.620.93.393.8
Whit MerrifieldRoyals1.590.873.2757.5
Max MuncyDodgers1.320.6375.8
Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks0.970.252.65121.2
Jonathan VillarMarlins0.7202.437.8
Tommy EdmanCardinals-0.53-1.251.15141.3
Cavan BiggioBlue Jays-1.03-1.750.65130.6
Starlin CastroNationals-1.16-1.880.52281.8
Rougned OdorRangers-1.45-2.170.23235.3
Brandon LoweRays-1.61-2.330.07205.3
Ryan McMahonRockies-1.68-2.40189.3

3B:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR12ZAR18ADP
Nolan ArenadoRockies6.584.896.6215.1
Rafael DeversRed Sox6.384.696.4223.1
Alex BregmanAstros6.074.386.1115.8
Jose RamirezIndians6.044.356.0816.9
Anthony RendonAngels4.622.934.6622.4
Manny MachadoPadres3.11.413.1462.9
Kris BryantCubs2.791.12.8358.7
Eugenio SuarezReds2.10.412.1487.0
Matt ChapmanAthletics2.080.392.1289.3
DJ LeMahieuYankees2.020.332.0670.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Blue Jays1.880.191.9255.6
Yoan MoncadaWhite Sox1.6901.7366.3
Mike MoustakasReds1.64-0.051.6899.0
Jeff McNeilMets1.62-0.071.6693.8
Max MuncyDodgers1.32-0.371.3675.8
Yuli GurrielAstros1.18-0.511.22150.7
Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks0.97-0.721.01121.2
Miguel SanoTwins-0.04-1.730117.9

SS:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR12ZAR18ADP
Francisco LindorIndians6.674.616.548.2
Alex BregmanAstros6.074.015.9415.8
Trevor StoryRockies6.043.985.9110.2
Trea TurnerNationals5.593.535.469.3
Javier BaezCubs4.182.124.0539.5
Fernando Tatis Jr.Padres4.132.07415.6
Xander BogaertsRed Sox4.0623.9343.5
Gleyber TorresYankees3.341.283.2131.9
Manny MachadoPadres3.11.042.9762.9
Tim AndersonWhite Sox2.150.092.0298.7
Marcus SemienAthletics2.090.031.9696
Bo BichetteBlue Jays2.0601.9366.1
Adalberto MondesiRoyals2.03-0.031.933.6
Carlos CorreaAstros1.7-0.361.57107.6
Jorge PolancoTwins1.35-0.711.22166.8
Jonathan VillarMarlins0.72-1.340.5937.8
Paul DeJongCardinals0.67-1.390.54201.7
Elvis AndrusRangers0.13-1.930138.6

OF:

NameTeamZ-scoreZAR36ZAR48ADP
Christian YelichBrewers9.268.6210.952.5
Mike TroutAngels9.228.5810.912.3
Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.597.9510.281.3
Cody BellingerDodgers8.527.8810.214.4
Mookie BettsDodgers7.116.478.86.0
Juan SotoNationals7.056.418.7411.0
J.D. MartinezRed Sox6.485.848.1724.0
Bryce HarperPhillies54.366.6923.0
Aaron JudgeYankees4.633.996.3231.1
George SpringerAstros4.553.916.2449.9
Starling MarteDiamondbacks4.243.65.9327.2
Charlie BlackmonRockies3.763.125.4546.0
Austin MeadowsRays3.472.835.1636.0
Eloy JimenezWhite Sox3.052.414.7458.4
Eddie RosarioTwins3.012.374.796.7
Ketel MarteDiamondbacks2.942.34.6355.1
Marcell OzunaBraves2.92.264.5999.0
Giancarlo StantonYankees2.822.184.5159.8
Kris BryantCubs2.792.154.4858.7
Tommy PhamPadres2.531.894.2271.0
Nicholas CastellanosReds2.331.694.0297.7
Michael ConfortoMets2.11.463.79119.8
Victor RoblesNationals1.831.193.5261.5
Jorge SolerRoyals1.831.193.5288.9
Joey GalloRangers1.711.073.491.6
Michael BrantleyAstros1.651.013.34131.6
Jeff McNeilMets1.620.983.3193.8
Whit MerrifieldRoyals1.590.953.2857.5
Trey ManciniOrioles1.470.833.16109.5
Yuli GurrielAstros1.180.542.87150.7
Andrew BenintendiRed Sox1.110.472.8111.8
Ramon LaureanoAthletics1.060.422.7577.9
Franmil ReyesIndians10.362.69144.9
Max KeplerTwins0.750.112.44142.4
Bryan ReynoldsPirates0.720.082.41194.6
Kyle SchwarberCubs0.6402.33146.0
Luis RobertWhite Sox0.2-0.441.8980.0
David DahlRockies-0.13-0.771.56149.6
Adam EatonNationals-0.2-0.841.49208.8
Oscar MercadoIndians-0.3-0.941.39112.0
Lorenzo CainBrewers-0.58-1.221.11177.1
Danny SantanaRangers-0.71-1.350.98139.3
Brian AndersonMarlins-0.95-1.590.74234.0
David PeraltaDiamondbacks-1.15-1.790.54252.8
Justin UptonAngels-1.37-2.010.32222.5
Hunter RenfroeRays-1.37-2.010.32258.2
Randal GrichukBlue Jays-1.52-2.160.17279.2
Avisail GarciaBrewers-1.69-2.330218.8

Analysis of these charts can be found here:

https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-22-replacement-value-pt-2-position-scarcity-analysis/

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