by Mickey Bell

*Stats and Roster % as of the morning of June 27

GRADUATED

• Adam Duvall, OF, MIA (35% to 53%)
• James Kaprielian, SP/RP, OAK (42% to 53%)
• Jonathan India, 2B/3B, CIN (43% to 51%)

50% OR UNDER

Avisail Garcia, OF, MIL (41%: returning)

Garcia’s rostership has dropped back down below 50%, and you should take advantage of it. With 14 HR and 4 steals on the year, he ranks 112th on Yahoo’s player rater in 5×5. Baseball Savant page backs up future success with solid Hard Hit rates and expected stats. He has a 8.0% Brls/PA which is 33rd among qualified batters. While he does chase and whiff too much, his xBA is still in the 76th percentile. The quality of his contact seems to mean you can expect even better results going forward.

Honorable Mentions: 

• CJ Cron, 1B, COL (35% to 48%)
• Omar Narvaez, C, MIL (48%: no change)
• Eloy Jimenez, OF, CWS (44% to 45%): Cleared to do baseball activities, stash him on your IL if you have the spots available.
• Ty France, 1B/2B/3B, SEA (36% to 42%)
• AJ Pollock, OF, LAD (42% to 40%)
• Amed Rosario, SS/OF, CLE (40%: new)
• Ross Stripling, SP/RP, TOR (10% to 47%): Stripling has a 2.29 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 0.85 WHIP with 36 K over his last 35.1 IP.
• Shane McClanahan, SP, TBR (39% to 45%)
• Tarik Skubal, SP, DET (46% to 45%)
• Giovanny Gallegos, RP, STL (50%: no change)
• Daniel Bard, RP, COL (47%: returning)

40% OR UNDER

Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA (39%: new)

Kelenic has not been called back up yet, but it could come soon. His first stint in the majors was terrible (8-for-83), but he has hit 5 HR in his last 12 games in AAA. His xwOBA (0.263) in the majors seems to show he wasn’t as bad as his results (0.178 wOBA). Still, Kelenic simply did not make great contact while he was up, alternatingly hitting the ball too high in the air or into the group (see image below). This is not bad luck per se but potentially means a player as talented as Kelenic is a tweak away from making more solid, consistent contact. While in the majors, Kelenic’s 12.5% Line Drive was well below league average around 21% and is due for positive regression. He could instantly be a five category contributor when he comes back up.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Robbie Grossman, OF, DET (38%: returning)
• JD Davis, 3B/OF, NYM (36%: returning)
• Keston Hiura, 1B/2B, MIL (36%: returning)
• Max Stassi, C, LAA (37% to 35%)
• Kolten Wong, 2B, MIL (26% to 34%)
• Logan Gilbert, SP, SEA (43% to 38%)
• JT Brubaker, SP, PIT (33%: returning)
• Jonathan Loaisiga, RP, NYY (29% to 34%)

30% OR UNDER

Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM (20% to 21%) 

Nimmo is expected to return to the Mets on Tuesday after missing a month with a finger injury. While he is a better real-life player (136 career wRC+) than a fantasy player due to below average power and a tough home park, he should provide elite run production, above average BA, and chip in a few steals. If you play in points or OBP leagues, Nimmo must be rostered.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (29% to 26%)
• Pavin Smith, 1B/OF, ARI (38% to 25%)
• Manuel Margot, OF, TBR (25% to 24%)
• Luis Urias, 2B/3B/SS, MIL (10% to 21%)
• Patrick Sandoval, SP, LAA (21% to 28%)
• Hansel Robles, RP, MIN (28% to 29%): Robles currently shares the Twins’ closer job with Taylor Rogers.
• Greg Holland, RP, KCR (27% to 29%)
• Chad Green, RP, NYY (25% to 27%) 
• Jose Alvarado, RP, PHI (27%: new)

20% OR UNDER

Akil Baddoo, OF, DET (18%: new)

This ‘20% or Under’ section has a lot of intriguing names. Baddoo himself has had an interesting up and down season but the ups have been far more prevalent (134 wRC+). He was the star of early April, hitting 4 HR in his first eight games. Then in his next 24 games from April 14 to May 18, he had no HR and a 0.534 OPS, striking out 44.7% of the time. Since then, he has just one HR but a 0.348 BA and an 0.992 OPS to go along with five steals. Most promising, he has just an 18.8% K rate during that time. According to StatCast, Baddoo’s xHR is 6.7, meaning he deserved about two more HR than the five he has hit.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Willy Adames, SS, MIL (19%: no change)
• Colin Moran, 1B/2B/3B, PIT (21% to 18%)
• Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, COL (15% to 12%)
• Jesus Sanchez, OF, MIA (12%: new)
• Abraham Toro, 3B, HOU (2% to 12%)
• Zach Thompson, SP/RP, MIA (17%: new): While Thompson has impressed, he gets @ATL next followed by LAD at home. 
• Caleb Smith, SP/RP, ARI (15%: new): Smith gets the Cardinals in St. Louis next and could be streamed in that matchup then assessed.

10% OR UNDER

Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, MIA (6%: returning)

Cooper is underrostered after returning from the IL. In his return on Friday night, he homered, doubled twice, and scored four runs. As a reminder, his rostership peaked around 34% before his IL stint. While Cooper is 30 years old and has never had more than 421 PA in a season, he should provide solid power and an above average BA while batting third or fourth for the Marlins.

Honorable Mentions: 

• Yonathan Daza, OF, COL (5% to 8%)
• Daz Cameron, OF, DET (7%: new)
• Taylor Ward, OF, LAA (6% to 5%)
• Harold Ramirez, OF, CLE (4%: no change): Ramirez leads the league with a 43.0% HardHit/PA (min: 100 PA). His Max EV is in the 94th percentile and his sprint speed is in the 89th percentile. His xwOBA (0.372) suggests he has been unlucky (0.338 wOBA). A 4.3 average launch angle, 54.4% GB rate, and 2.7% BB rate limit his upside.
• Alejandro Kirk, C, TOR (4%: new): Kirk starts a Triple-A rehab soon. He can absolutely rake and, with Danny Jansen on the IL, might get regular at bats when he gets activated.
• Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN (4% to 3%)
• Brad Brach, RP, CIN (7%: new)