by Mickey Bell Lots of proven stars struggled in the 60 game 2020 MLB season. Which players’ down seasons portend a long term downward trend? Which players simply had bad luck due to small sample size and/or injuries/illness? As every player listed above gets drafted later than last year, some…
by Mickey Bell All ownership percentages are taken from Yahoo as of August 16. >10% Roberto Perez (5% owned) Perez, who finally got a chance to start in 2019 after Yan Gomes was traded to the Nationals, rewarded Cleveland with 24 HR and a 0.774 OPS. His barrel rate was…
Ian Happ (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 256; Yahoo % Owned: 43%): Happ dropped his K% from 36% in 2018 to 25% last year. He always nears the top of the majors in barrels, and he steals around 10 bags per year. With the DH, the Cubs can let Albert Almora…
Atlanta Braves Austin Riley (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 317; Yahoo % Owned: 15%): Before universal DH talk, it seemed like Johan Camargo would win the 3B job in Atlanta. But Riley hit well in spring training (1.000 OPS) way back when and had vastly cut down on his strikeouts in…
Rich Hill – Minnesota Twins (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 265) Credit: Baseballsavant.com After Hill had elbow surgery back in November with a June 2020 return date, it made sense he was being drafted well past the top 400. But barring a setback, the 40 year old should benefit from an…
Around the Horn is a recurring theme where we pick one guy from each position for articles or the podcast. Here are “My Guys” in 2020. Some players are expected to be high picks, but more simply represent a value in my mind. C: Mitch Garver (ADP: 124) Garver was…
A Poem by James Hare Waking, eating, traveling are a black hole lacking memory, It’s instantly a mid morning in Coastal Maine. Golfing with my old man on a 9 Hole course, signed in as guests of Saul. When the tide comes in on 6 it creates a natural water…
Due to the dearth of stolen bases in the modern MLB, players who steal bases are getting pushed up more than ever. High steals guys are getting drafted above their value based on z-scores. This article provides alternatives to seemingly overvalued guys. Key Broke (Blue) The SB option to fade…
This article is an analysis of the charts from this post: https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-18-replacement-value-pt-1-position-scarcity-charts/. In that post, I explain the variations of ZAR (z-score above replacement). The z-scores are based on ATC projections and the average draft position (ADP) is based on NFBC drafts. Catcher: From February into March, JT Realmuto has…
Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team…