Ian Happ (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 256; Yahoo % Owned: 43%): Happ dropped his K% from 36% in 2018 to 25% last year. He always nears the top of the majors in barrels, and he steals around 10 bags per year. With the DH, the Cubs can let Albert Almora keep some of his defensive duties while getting Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, and Happ at bats. Victor Caratini (ADP: 590; Owned: 1%): The switch-hitting Caratini is a very solid hitter who was one of the biggest catching prospects a few years back. Most teams will carry three or more catchers,…
Atlanta Braves Austin Riley (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 317; Yahoo % Owned: 15%): Before universal DH talk, it seemed like Johan Camargo would win the 3B job in Atlanta. But Riley hit well in spring training (1.000 OPS) way back when and had vastly cut down on his strikeouts in that small sample size. Ender Inciarte (ADP: 506; Owned: 2%): The universal DH would allow the Braves to put Inciarte, their best defensive center fielder, on the field and move Ronald Acuna to a corner outfield spot. No hitting pitcher also means guys like Inciarte at the bottom of the…
Rich Hill – Minnesota Twins (NFBC ADP since 4/15: 265) Credit: Baseballsavant.com After Hill had elbow surgery back in November with a June 2020 return date, it made sense he was being drafted well past the top 400. But barring a setback, the 40 year old should benefit from an early July start more than almost any other player. From 2015 to 2019, Rich Hill recorded a 2.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9. He had a slightly lucky 2.45 ERA last year (xERA: 3.15) and the long ball against righties was a big concern in 2019, but those homers…
Around the Horn is a recurring theme where we pick one guy from each position for articles or the podcast. Here are “My Guys” in 2020. Some players are expected to be high picks, but more simply represent a value in my mind. C: Mitch Garver (ADP: 124) Garver was amazing last year, but projection systems and draft position don’t expect him to duplicate it. Garver hit 31 HR last year in 359 PA (plate appearances), but the highest projection on Fangraphs has him at 21. Garver was in the 97th percentile for Hard Hit % and was 10th overall…
A Poem by James Hare Waking, eating, traveling are a black hole lacking memory, It’s instantly a mid morning in Coastal Maine. Golfing with my old man on a 9 Hole course, signed in as guests of Saul. When the tide comes in on 6 it creates a natural water Hazard. Nice shots are awarded with paternalistic approval that leaves a warm glow akin to the similar warmth of the Maine sun. Mom says the hole in the ozone up here is larger which makes it easier to get burnt. I don’t know if that’s bullshit or not. Dad says…
Due to the dearth of stolen bases in the modern MLB, players who steal bases are getting pushed up more than ever. High steals guys are getting drafted above their value based on z-scores. This article provides alternatives to seemingly overvalued guys. Key Broke (Blue) The SB option to fade Woke (Pink) A more reasonably priced SB option Rank Overall rank based on z-score (ATC projections) Value ADP minus “Rank” Rank Name Team Projected SB Z-score ADP Value 107 Jonathan Villar Marlins 33 0.72 37.8 -69.2 77 Victor Robles Nationals 32 1.83 61.5 -15.5 There are only 6 players…
This article is an analysis of the charts from this post: https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-18-replacement-value-pt-1-position-scarcity-charts/. In that post, I explain the variations of ZAR (z-score above replacement). The z-scores are based on ATC projections and the average draft position (ADP) is based on NFBC drafts. Catcher: From February into March, JT Realmuto has been drafted earlier and earlier, moving from the 60s all the way below 50. But there is a good reason for this when you consider replacement value. Only Cody Bellinger at 1B and the top 6 outfielders (including Bellinger again) have a larger ZAR than Realmuto’s 6.12. If you are…
Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better…
If you spend a high pick on a catcher like JT Realmuto or Gary Sanchez, you are getting a player with worse statistics than other players going at that time. That’s obvious. Realmuto’s z-score based on ATC projections is barely positive (0.54) and Sanchez has “negative” value (-1.76). I decided to match Realmuto, Sanchez, and Jorge Alfaro (who represents “replacement value”) up against players being drafted right next to them to see what you are missing out on at other positions. Here is JT Realmuto compared to other players around his draft position: Name Position ADP Z-score JT Realmuto C…
To find values in Yahoo! drafts this year, I used Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections from Fangraphs, and calculated z-scores based on the standard five roto stats: HR, R, RBI, SB, and AVG. Depending on how many players you pick to calculate the mean and standard deviations, the z-scores will vary slightly, but you can see who is over- and undervalued regardless. Here are six of my favorite values based on where they are being drafted on Yahoo. Name Z Rank Yahoo ADP Difference Brian Anderson 161 255.9 94.9 Paul DeJong 109 200.4 91.4 Khris Davis 114 191.9 77.9 Jorge Polanco…