BROKE VS WOKE: COMPARING STOLEN BASE OPTIONS TO FADE OR TARGET

Due to the dearth of stolen bases in the modern MLB, players who steal bases are getting pushed up more than ever. High steals guys are getting drafted above their value based on z-scores. This article provides alternatives to seemingly overvalued guys. Key Broke (Blue) The SB option to fade Woke (Pink) A more reasonably priced SB option Rank Overall rank based on z-score (ATC projections) Value ADP minus “Rank”   Rank Name Team Projected SB Z-score ADP Value 107 Jonathan Villar Marlins 33 0.72 37.8 -69.2 77 Victor Robles Nationals 32 1.83 61.5 -15.5 There are only 6 players…

REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 2: POSITION SCARCITY ANALYSIS

This article is an analysis of the charts from this post: https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-18-replacement-value-pt-1-position-scarcity-charts/. In that post, I explain the variations of ZAR (z-score above replacement). The z-scores are based on ATC projections and the average draft position (ADP) is based on NFBC drafts. Catcher: From February into March, JT Realmuto has been drafted earlier and earlier, moving from the 60s all the way below 50. But there is a good reason for this when you consider replacement value. Only Cody Bellinger at 1B and the top 6 outfielders (including Bellinger again) have a larger ZAR than Realmuto’s 6.12. If you are…

REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 1: POSITION SCARCITY CHARTS

Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better…

IS IT WORTH IT TO TAKE AN EARLY CATCHER?

If you spend a high pick on a catcher like JT Realmuto or Gary Sanchez, you are getting a player with worse statistics than other players going at that time. That’s obvious. Realmuto’s z-score based on ATC projections is barely positive (0.54) and Sanchez has “negative” value (-1.76). I decided to match Realmuto, Sanchez, and Jorge Alfaro (who represents “replacement value”) up against players being drafted right next to them to see what you are missing out on at other positions. Here is JT Realmuto compared to other players around his draft position: Name Position ADP Z-score JT Realmuto C…

2020 VALUE HITTERS ON YAHOO! FANTASY BASEBALL

To find values in Yahoo! drafts this year, I used Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections from Fangraphs, and calculated z-scores based on the standard five roto stats: HR, R, RBI, SB, and AVG. Depending on how many players you pick to calculate the mean and standard deviations, the z-scores will vary slightly, but you can see who is over- and undervalued regardless. Here are six of my favorite values based on where they are being drafted on Yahoo. Name Z Rank Yahoo ADP Difference Brian Anderson 161 255.9 94.9 Paul DeJong 109 200.4 91.4 Khris Davis 114 191.9 77.9 Jorge Polanco…

POTENTIAL TRADE DEADLINE WINNERS/LOSERS: MIAMI MARLINS AND CINCINNATI REDS

The 2019 MLB Trade Deadline is on July 31, and this year it has an added finality to it since waivers in August and September are no longer allowed. That being said, it might not be as active as some might expect because so few teams (especially in the National League) have thrown in the towel on their season.  Miami Marlins In the NL, the Marlins are the only clear cut sellers at 36-59 and 13.5 games back from the second wild card spot. However, they have nobody of fantasy baseball relevance except for Sergio Romo, who would likely lose…

USING STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO ANALYZE THE HOMER-HAPPY START OF THE SEASON

Every baseball fan and fantasy player knows it: homers are up, and steals are on the decline. Last year, MLB teams averaged 1.15 HR per game. This year, that number is up to 1.35 and the summer heat will likely make that number rise even further. In 2018, MLB teams on average stole 82 bags over the course of the season, or 0.51 bases per game. That number is at 0.47 so far this year, continuing a downward trend. Average Team Steals Per Game 2014 0.57 2015 0.52 2016 0.52 2017 0.52 2018 0.51 2019 0.47* *As of June 17,…