AROUND THE HORN: TALKIN ‘BOUT “MY GUYS” (2020 EDITION)

Around the Horn is a recurring theme where we pick one guy from each position for articles or the podcast. Here are “My Guys” in 2020. Some players are expected to be high picks, but more simply represent a value in my mind. C: Mitch Garver (ADP: 124) Garver was amazing last year, but projection systems and draft position don’t expect him to duplicate it. Garver hit 31 HR last year in 359 PA (plate appearances), but the highest projection on Fangraphs has him at 21. Garver was in the 97th percentile for Hard Hit % and was 10th overall…

Stolen Base Discussion & Part 2 of Non-“Home Team” Favorites

James and Mick talk about stolen base options including Jonathan Villar (Marlins), Byron Buxton (Twins), and deep sleeper Jarrod Dyson (Pirates). Then they get into part 2 of their Non-”Home Team” favorites, picking players from their lifetime on any team other than the Red Sox and Phillies, respectively. Time Stamps: 2:45- Stolen base conversation 16:25- Part 2 of our Non-”Home Team” Players starting from SS — This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

GOD BLESSED BRIAN DAUBACH

A Poem by James Hare Waking, eating, traveling are a black hole lacking memory, It’s instantly a mid morning in Coastal Maine.  Golfing with my old man on a 9 Hole course, signed in as guests of Saul. When the tide comes in on 6 it creates a natural water Hazard. Nice shots are awarded with paternalistic approval that leaves a warm glow akin to the similar warmth of the Maine sun. Mom says the hole in the ozone up here is larger which makes it easier to get burnt. I don’t know if that’s bullshit or not.  Dad says…

Exit Velocity “Hulks”, Retrospectives, and Part 1 of Non-“Home Team” Favorites

James and Mick start off covering a few of their favorite exit velocity darlings. Then they take a trip down memory lane looking at some of their player predictions at last year’s All Star Break and who they were right and wrong about. Last is part one of James (a Red Sox fan) and Mick (a Phillies fan) picking their favorite players from any team other than the Red Sox and Phillies, respectively. Time Stamps: 2:25- Joey Gallo 8:50- Franmil Reyes 19:50- Gary Sanchez 22:45- Trey “Boom Boom” Mancini 25:00- Austin Riley 26:50- DJ LeMahieu 27:40- Cody Bellinger 29:00- Tim…

BROKE VS WOKE: COMPARING STOLEN BASE OPTIONS TO FADE OR TARGET

Due to the dearth of stolen bases in the modern MLB, players who steal bases are getting pushed up more than ever. High steals guys are getting drafted above their value based on z-scores. This article provides alternatives to seemingly overvalued guys. Key Broke (Blue) The SB option to fade Woke (Pink) A more reasonably priced SB option Rank Overall rank based on z-score (ATC projections) Value ADP minus “Rank”   Rank Name Team Projected SB Z-score ADP Value 107 Jonathan Villar Marlins 33 0.72 37.8 -69.2 77 Victor Robles Nationals 32 1.83 61.5 -15.5 There are only 6 players…

Interview with RotoWire Senior Editor Jeff Erickson! (Yes, really.)

UDWOBP and RotoWire Senior Editor Jeff Erickson? What is this, a crossover episode?! Yes. Yes, it is.  A can’t miss episode wherein three Goliaths of the fantasy baseball podcast world meet! James and Mick sat down with Jeff Erickson, host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius/XM radio and RotoWire Senior Editor, to talk position scarcity, how we are keeping busy without baseball, and more.  Thanks to Chris at @baseballpods on Twitter for setting up the March Madness-style bracket of fantasy baseball podcasts in which we matched up against RotoWire! And obviously, another big thanks to Jeff for reaching out…

REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 2: POSITION SCARCITY ANALYSIS

This article is an analysis of the charts from this post: https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-18-replacement-value-pt-1-position-scarcity-charts/. In that post, I explain the variations of ZAR (z-score above replacement). The z-scores are based on ATC projections and the average draft position (ADP) is based on NFBC drafts. Catcher: From February into March, JT Realmuto has been drafted earlier and earlier, moving from the 60s all the way below 50. But there is a good reason for this when you consider replacement value. Only Cody Bellinger at 1B and the top 6 outfielders (including Bellinger again) have a larger ZAR than Realmuto’s 6.12. If you are…

REPLACEMENT VALUE PT. 1: POSITION SCARCITY CHARTS

Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better…

IS IT WORTH IT TO TAKE AN EARLY CATCHER?

If you spend a high pick on a catcher like JT Realmuto or Gary Sanchez, you are getting a player with worse statistics than other players going at that time. That’s obvious. Realmuto’s z-score based on ATC projections is barely positive (0.54) and Sanchez has “negative” value (-1.76). I decided to match Realmuto, Sanchez, and Jorge Alfaro (who represents “replacement value”) up against players being drafted right next to them to see what you are missing out on at other positions. Here is JT Realmuto compared to other players around his draft position: Name Position ADP Z-score JT Realmuto C…

Roto Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

*Note: We recorded this episode before the MLB delayed the start of the 2020 season, but hopefully our mock draft episode will still be interesting/distracting as many of us are stuck at home with not much to do (and no sports!) Stay safe, everyone. In the first episode of the 2020 season, James and Mick do a quick 5×5 roto mock draft on fantasypros.com to test out draft strategies and discuss the players they are high and low on. — This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app