U Down With OBP?

Around the Horn is a recurring theme where we pick one guy from each position for articles or the podcast. Here are “My Guys” in 2020. Some players are expected to be high picks, but more simply represent a value in my mind. C: Mitch Garver (ADP: 124) Garver was amazing last year, but projection systems and draft position don’t expect him to duplicate it. Garver hit 31 HR last year in 359 PA (plate appearances), but the highest projection on Fangraphs has him at 21. Garver was in the 97th percentile for Hard Hit % and was 10th overall…

A Poem by James Hare Waking, eating, traveling are a black hole lacking memory, It’s instantly a mid morning in Coastal Maine.  Golfing with my old man on a 9 Hole course, signed in as guests of Saul. When the tide comes in on 6 it creates a natural water Hazard. Nice shots are awarded with paternalistic approval that leaves a warm glow akin to the similar warmth of the Maine sun. Mom says the hole in the ozone up here is larger which makes it easier to get burnt. I don’t know if that’s bullshit or not.  Dad says…

Due to the dearth of stolen bases in the modern MLB, players who steal bases are getting pushed up more than ever. High steals guys are getting drafted above their value based on z-scores. This article provides alternatives to seemingly overvalued guys. Key Broke (Blue) The SB option to fade Woke (Pink) A more reasonably priced SB option Rank Overall rank based on z-score (ATC projections) Value ADP minus “Rank”   Rank Name Team Projected SB Z-score ADP Value 107 Jonathan Villar Marlins 33 0.72 37.8 -69.2 77 Victor Robles Nationals 32 1.83 61.5 -15.5 There are only 6 players…

This article is an analysis of the charts from this post: https://udownwithobp.com/2020-03-18-replacement-value-pt-1-position-scarcity-charts/. In that post, I explain the variations of ZAR (z-score above replacement). The z-scores are based on ATC projections and the average draft position (ADP) is based on NFBC drafts. Catcher: From February into March, JT Realmuto has been drafted earlier and earlier, moving from the 60s all the way below 50. But there is a good reason for this when you consider replacement value. Only Cody Bellinger at 1B and the top 6 outfielders (including Bellinger again) have a larger ZAR than Realmuto’s 6.12. If you are…

Certain positions get pushed up in drafts due to scarcity, and that is very clear looking at the average draft position (ADP) of catchers and second basemen this year. The ADP for this article is based on NFBC drafts. In these charts, I looked at “replacement value” for 12 team leagues, which I define as the last player who should start at a position based on ATC projections. In other words, if you are in a 12 team league with one catcher starting, the 12th best catcher based on projections is Omar Narvaez. The ZAR number shows how much better…

If you spend a high pick on a catcher like JT Realmuto or Gary Sanchez, you are getting a player with worse statistics than other players going at that time. That’s obvious. Realmuto’s z-score based on ATC projections is barely positive (0.54) and Sanchez has “negative” value (-1.76). I decided to match Realmuto, Sanchez, and Jorge Alfaro (who represents “replacement value”) up against players being drafted right next to them to see what you are missing out on at other positions. Here is JT Realmuto compared to other players around his draft position: Name Position ADP Z-score JT Realmuto C…